A recently CII survey has revealed that due to the COVID-19 lockdown in India, around 65 per cent of the firms expect their revenues to fall by more than 40 per cent in the Apr-Jun quarter, in which 45 per cent respondents felt it will take more than a year to achieve economic normalcy.
More than 300 CEOs participated in the CII CEOs snap poll on the impact of COVID-19 on economy and industry. Nearly two-thirds belonged to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
For fiscal 2020-21, the expectations of a fall in revenue are staggered, with 33 per cent of the firms anticipating a revenue fall of more than 40 per cent, closely followed by 32 per cent of firms expecting a revenue contraction ranging between 20 and 40 per cent.
While three out of four firms have identified that a ‘complete shutdown of operations’ was a major constraint being faced by business, more than half of them also indicated ‘lack of demand for products’ as a hindrance to business activity.
With respect to their own companies, however, the respondents anticipated a slightly quicker recovery, i.e. within 6-12 months with 34 per cent of the respondents indicating the same. According to a large proportion of the firms, a recovery in domestic demand, for their product or services, may precede the recovery in foreign demand for the same.
On the jobs and livelihoods front, more than half of the firms (54 per cent) foresee job losses in their respective sectors after the lockdown ends. Forty five per cent of the respondents expect 15 -30 per cent cut in jobs. However, allaying some concerns, nearly two-thirds of the respondents reported that they have not experienced a salary/ wage cut in their firms so far.