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Indian retail expects to bounce back in 2020

The Indian retail industry expects to bounce back in the second half of 2020. A pickup in demand and growth is expected. But this would depend on various factors like recovery of manufacturing and other sectors, incentives in the union budget and availability of money in the hands of consumers to make purchasing decisions. If the budget is pro-consumption and has measures so that additional cash is available in the hands of people, it would increase consumption. This would also be helped by initiatives such as increased spending on infrastructure projects and corporate tax breaks. Support including ease of doing business across sectors may have an impact on retail as well.

Major players struggled to keep themselves on the growth chart in 2019. Formal retailers showed growth but not dramatically a double-digit growth. Though the economic slowdown started in high-ticket segments like real estate, auto and consumer durables due to the credit squeeze triggered by the NBFC crisis, it spread to other sectors such as retail as the consumption basket shrank. There is stress in the system due to lack of funds. The consuming class has either downgraded or become careful in spending. The consumption slowdown, a reflection of weaker consumer sentiments, damped demand.

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