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India’s export trajectory is undergoing a structural transformation, with cross-border e-commerce positioned to contribute nearly one-third of total merchandise exports by 2030. According to the NITI Aayog ‘Trade Watch Quarterly’ released on February 13, 2026, the digital retail sector is projected to scale to $300 billion, driven by a surge in demand for Indian-made apparel and electronics. The report highlights, while India’s services exports grew by 8.5 per cent in Q2 FY26, the next phase of growth hinges on integrating the nation’s 63 million MSMEs into global digital value chains. Suman Bery, Vice Chairman, noted that this transition moves beyond ‘assembly-led gains’ to a high-value manufacturing model, potentially contributing up to 4.3% to the national GDP.

Policy reforms to neutralize logistic and regulatory headwinds

To realize this $1 trillion merchandise ambition, the Union Budget 2026-27 has introduced critical reforms to dismantle long-standing trade barriers. A landmark move includes the complete removal of the Rs 10 lakh value cap on courier exports, a policy shift designed to catalyze B2C apparel trade for small-scale artisans. Despite these advancements, the sector faces challenges such as the absence of specialized customs codes and inefficient reverse logistics for international returns. Industry leaders emphasize that adopting global best practices—such as 24-hour digital customs clearance—is essential to compete with regional rivals. By synchronizing digital infrastructure with the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision, the government aims to turn local apparel clusters into global retail hubs, leveraging India’s burgeoning 300 million-strong online shopper base.

NITI Aayog is India’s premier policy think tank, providing strategic and technical advice to the central and state governments. Its 2026 roadmap focuses on ‘Export Preparedness,’ specifically targeting the electronics and textile sectors. With a goal to facilitate $500 billion in manufacturing by FY2030, the Aayog monitors trade competitiveness and structural economic reforms.

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