08 December 2025, Mumbai
Fueled by increasing disposable incomes, quick digital adoption, and a massive surge in consumer aspirations across urban and non-urban ares, India’s retail market is projected to skyrocket to $1 trillion by 2030. As per a report by Fireside Ventures and Redseer Strategy Consultants, branded retail is expected to double in size, reaching $730 billion by 2030 and accounting for nearly half of the entire retail market.
This impressive growth underscores a rising preference for quality, consistency, and trust—factors increasingly influencing purchasing decisions, especially among younger consumers.
At the forefront of this transformation, new-age brands are growing at a pace two to three times faster than traditional players, according to the report. The rise of e-commerce, quick commerce, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms has leveled the playing field, allowing emerging brands to build strong customer relationships, scale rapidly, and meet evolving expectations around convenience, speed, and personalization.
This digital disruption is profoundly reshaping the distribution landscape. While traditional general trade dominated 91 per cent of India’s retail market in 2014, its share is expected to fall significantly to 70 per cent by 2030, making room for the expansion of modern trade and digital channels. Notably, D2C and quick commerce are projected to capture around 5 per cent of the overall market, highlighting their growing importance in India's consumption story.
The ongoing digital revolution provides further momentum. With an expected 1.1 billion internet users and 400 million online shoppers by 2030, India is quickly becoming one of the world’s largest and most dynamic digital consumer economies. Smartphone penetration is likely to reach 70 per cent, enabling unprecedented access to information, products, and services. Social media is also playing a transformative role by narrowing the awareness gap between major metros and smaller towns.
This expanding consumption landscape is closely tied to India’s broader economic growth trajectory. Private consumption is set to add $300 billion every year to the country’s GDP, strengthening India’s path toward becoming the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade.
The report identifies 13 key shifts that will define the next decade, from the growing influence of women as primary household decision-makers to the rapid premiumization of categories, the rise of branded consumption in Tier II and III markets, and the emergence of AI-driven personalization.
As Fireside Ventures and Redseer emphasize, the next decade belongs to bold and disruptive brands.
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