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Textiles Sector & Cotton is driven by demand

15 September 2022, Mumbai:

Considering the ongoing inflation around the world especially red hot inflation in the US world's biggest economy, reading into the trade data & given that inflationary/cost pressures persist. It is evident that inflation affects different stakeholders in a different fashion. 

But on the whole, it is anecdotal that inflation bites the common man more than anybody else thus global demand will drive the cotton and textile sectors. The impending inflation with very sticky consumer price index (CPI) values in textile importing countries such as the USA, the EU, and the UK underscores the vitality of demand as a determinant.

Supply shock

This year has so far seen unusual volatility in cotton prices owing to the tight supply situation. Reading into the global cotton, supply & availability dynamics fundamental of cotton is not bullish at this juncture. The semblance is Cotton will be in tight supply due to drought in West Texas, unexpected floods disaster in Pakistan, and several other factors. The textile balance of the sector for once has shifted heavily on the supply side of the equation. However, it is consumers' end products demand only to drive the textiles industry.

A deep dive into the sector dwells on the volatility in the price of MCU-5 cotton per candy (356 kg) from December 2021 to September 2022. While at the same time price peaked on May 22, though it has started to moderate. 

Everybody knows inflation was fueled by the Russia @ War (Russian invasion of Ukraine), having sustainably elevated fuel/oil prices, and slackened consumption of non-discrete/non-essentials.

Dwelling on the price situation of MCU-5 cotton, which is spun into fine counts used in home textiles, knowing that these textiles had many takers during the pandemic period wherein the demand aggregate was peaking. The cotton price situation/price dynamics since May 2022 are reflective that the textiles demand presently is moderating, factoring in high prices for essential products like groceries. 

The caveat here is, on one hand, we have to ensure supply security & on the other hand price competitiveness to tackle the double whammy of falling demand & cost pressures.

The very recent Consumer Price Index number released by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase of 8.3% over last year, indicating that inflation continues to be red-hot & sticky. This is very likely shall lead to the Federal Reserve Bank in the US to yet again raise the interest rates to rein in inflation. Again steep rise in interest rates will strengthen the US dollar, which has a domino effect on the cost of imported goods traded in the dollar. Inflation is also at a steep high at 9.9% in the UK.

Thus given geopolitics & prevalent macroeconomic situation it will surely dampen global consumer confidence/buying power, influencing & hurting the purchase of non-essential/non-discreet articles.

Festivity & fervour

“Normally during the present times with the arrival of the festive season in India, we see high demand for yarns. But the demand is not there,” stated Velmurugan Shanmugam, GM of Aruppukkottai-based Jayalakshmi Textiles, India. On June 25th in a meeting hosted by the Textile Association-South India Unit in Coimbatore, attended by about 720 people from the textile sector, Seshadri Ramkumar, Professor articulated the importance of analyzing the holistic picture of supply and demand, macroeconomic and geo-political scenarios in planning ahead for the textile sector. 

“If we see demand moderation, there is a potential for the cotton market to move down despite tight supply,” stated Shawn Wade, Director of Policy Analysis and Research of Lubbock-based Plains Cotton Growers, Inc.

Given the tricky unprecedented high inflationary situation the global economy is staring at, stressful & unpredictable power situations in the EU and the UK are going to add to the economic woes. To add fuel to the fire is the ongoing energy crisis/supply challenges arising out of brewing diplomatic tension between Russia & Europe, as inflation is peaking so it will only be prudent for the textile sector to factor in for moderated demand in the coming months.

Caveat Emptor et Venditor!

Therefore, it is imperative that Textiles Sector & Cotton is driven by demand in turn determining the price situation of raw materials, while supply constraints, availability of resources stay and all the above has to be factored in by the industry to build near-term prognosis. 

(CREDITS: Seshadri Ramkumar, Professor, Texas Tech University, USA)

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Textile industry & its water footprints

15 September 2022, Mumbai:

The textile and fashion industry arguably is one of the water's thirstiest sectors as its long supply chain is regarded to be the heaviest water consumer from fibre production to finished product. A deep dive into water shows that it is used extensively by the textile industry during all of its many processes, including size, desizing, mercerizing, scouring, bleaching, printing, and finishing. The consumption of considerable volumes of "virtual water," or water that cannot be utilized for anything else owing to evaporation or pollution, is sometimes overlooked in water footprint estimates, in addition to processing.  

The industry's environmental effect, however, is not only dependent on the amount of water it uses. A wide range of contaminants that impair external water resources can also be found in the effluent from the textile manufacturing process. Numerous factors, including the kind of facility, as well as the technologies, processes, fibers, and chemicals employed, affect the kind and quantity of pollutants produced. For example, processing cotton and wool fibers use more water compared to manufacturing nylon and polyester materials.

Environmental impact

But the industry's impact on the environment is not only a function of how much water it consumes. The wastewater from the textile production process also contains a variety of toxins that harm external water resources. The kind and quantity of pollutants generated are influenced by a wide range of variables, including the type of facility, as well as the technologies, processes, fibers, and chemicals used. For instance, as compared to the production of nylon and polyester materials, the processing of cotton and wool fibers needs more water.

Water Footprint and how to calculate it

As previously stated, a water footprint calculation must take into account virtual water or the entire amount of water consumed during all manufacturing processes. Virtual water either evaporates or gets too contaminated to be used by humans throughout the textile preparation process. For example, generating a kilo of cotton in India uses an average of 22,500 L (or 6,000 gallons) of water, however, this significant water use for fiber production is sometimes overlooked when calculating the water footprint of the textile processing industry. 

Understanding the LCA 

Given rising water costs, regulatory constraints, demand from other businesses and people, and regulatory pressures, the textile industry is taking considerable steps toward sustainability. Although there are effective biological and chemical methods for processing textile effluent, the chemicals employed in chemical treatment are sometimes pricy and harmful to the environment. However, certain bacteria utilized in biological treatment cooperate to safely digest additional substances and complex organic wastes, lowering COD, BOD, and nitrogen levels in the process. 

Decentralized wastewater treatment makes sense for the textile sector since it puts treatment closer to the place of production. Additionally, when It Comes To Water Security, Businesses Cannot Choose To Wait thus treating textile effluent at the point of origin is a business imperative, before it is diluted in sewers besides greatly boosts efficiency. It is nothing to frown upon that these fees can be decreased in regions where municipal facilities charge extra for excessively dirty water. 

Water crisis could trigger World War III, says expert

The water footprint is one of the reliable metrics for quantifying water consumption. Water is necessary for life, as said, but it is also the most endangered critical resource on the planet. 

The article highlights the water footprint of the textile and fashion industry from fiber to fashion which is very regrettable. The good bit is to quell the concern Greenpeace is fighting for an end to the industry's use of dangerous, persistent, and hormone-disrupting chemicals in our water, and the textile industry is supporting changes in the use of eco-friendly chemicals and water conservation.

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Optimism fuels growth this festival season

14 September 2022, Mumbai:

India is regarded as the global festivity capital given the secular, vibrant democracy we have & been known to celebrate all festivals with colour & gusto. Broadly if we were to define the festivity/festive period, conventionally it is the Winter season which ushers in many multi-coloured festivals celebrated Pan-India starting from sometimes as early as June and lasting till the Diwali week or new normal is unstated extended run till new year eve.
Festivity & its fervour
E-commerce firms are expected to log a 28% year-on-year growth in sales at USD 11.8-billion during the festive month this year, and in 2021 overall online retail GMV (gross merchandise value) of $52 billion is likely to grow by 30% hitting $68 billion in 2022. The growth is expected to be driven by the doubling of online shoppers during festive sales as against 2018. ahead of festivity as it sees that in the 1st week itself, the sales are likely to hit around USD 5.9 billion. Additionally, the quick YOY comparison of 28% rise V/s corresponding period of USD 4.8$Bn gives a big heart a Redseer report said recently.
Revenge buying drives retail sales
As a back-of-envelope calculation given sales triggers festivity fuels consumerism and impulse buying. Albeit the demand forecast at the granularity level cannot be a straight line in terms of the category mix as pre-festive months/festivity unfolds & evolves year in and year out.
Who doesn't want to celebrate? On the back of economic recovery and improving business & consumer confidence Who doesn't want to celebrate? These newfound expectations will be the key to driving sales revenues for brands during the festive season leading to an increase in volume sales.
The secular trend of witnessing non-discrete consumer spending is mirrored by E-commerce majors Flipkart and Amazon India experienced a strong start to this year's festive sale earlier this week. It is driven by synergies of better deals and new launches ahead of festivity in some of the categories where the forecast is as high as 4x growth in the number of online shoppers from 2018.
Digital adoption
As an anecdotal, observation season shoppers' journey begins with fashion promoting the participation of fashion-led players in the festive sales this year well supported by first-time shoppers and enthusiasts alike all on the back of the accelerated digital adoption and increasing digital penetration deep down leading to a goldilocks kind of a scenario.
Affordability Quotient
In layman's terms, What it means is to know what exactly can you afford exactly. The affordability quotient plays an important role in consumers' buying decisions and is a major catalyst in driving realty demand. On the back of this heightened optimism, brands are buying into these hopes & are expecting the expanding customer base to reflect incremental sales amid the unfolding festival sales period.
Supply cannot be behind demand
Given that currently, India is the strongest & fastest growing market as most of its macroeconomic variables are pretty stable. In some sense today India is a proxy for China's growth and has the potential of becoming a global growth engine in the coming years.
Given this demand tailwinds, brands are upping their ante this festival to make hay when optimism sun shines.
Additionally, considering the new initiative's having the ability to move the needle being noticed in the marketplace such as the launch of new e-commerce models such as live/video commerce will help strengthen sales/volume metrics driving further eyeballs during the festive period. So how come the outcomes be disappointing?
The growth in festive sales is a function of heightened footfalls at the offline retail & pupil dilating eyeballs at e-commerce platforms & resulting in impressive outcomes like the overall online retail GMV (Gross Merchandise Value), having clocked USD 52 billion in 2021, & further to inch up as much by 30% clocking USD 68 billion or thereabouts in 2022, asserts Redseer in its recent report. Sanjay Kothari, Associate Partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants alludes, "The doubling of online shoppers during the festive season is majorly due to increasing awareness of the festive sales among the shoppers".
Most of the brands we are talking to echo the spirit of festivity alluding that," We are seeing strong booking trends & expecting this season to be strong despite of inflationary/cost pressures and hoping optimism will realise.

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Regulating ESG & Textile Industry

11 September 2022, Mumbai:

The complex landscape of conflicting sustainability reporting frameworks and standards that direct businesses and investors in ESG disclosure may soon become more apparent. In November, Glasgow will play host to COP26, the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference.

The International Sustainability Standards Board will be established by the time it starts by the IFRS Foundation, which is in charge of setting international accounting standards. The new ISSB will advise businesses on what sustainability disclosures to include in their financial statements to inform investors better.

Overview of the EU framework 

A whole alphabet soup of regulations is coming out of the EU this year, potentially significantly altering the landscape of sustainable investment in Europe. These regulations include SFDR, CSRD, and green taxonomy. The EU surpassed all in developing an international sustainability policy in 2018 with the release of its sustainable finance action plan.

Making investments in the environment, society, and government more transparent and improving transparency was vital to that plan. The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, or SFDR, resulted from that.

The US is starting to take its efforts to regulate steering investments toward more ESG-friendly initiatives, while Europe is setting the example by prioritizing a sustainable finance system at the top of its agenda.

Although there are a variety of ESG regulatory frameworks in the Asia Pacific (APAC), general trends point to better data and disclosures. "Although there aren't any explicit new laws in place right now, the asset management sector has to take action right away to prepare for the influx of data on climate risk that it will soon receive for all assets it manages and the rising need for climate-related disclosures.

Concerns around ESG

Asset managers should take into account a more comprehensive ESG approach by putting in place an operational framework with governance and supervision at its heart, including suitable monitoring and surveillance controls and procedures linked to ESG, and using data that is consistent, similar, and trustworthy to calculate the return to shareholders.

The TCFD framework will be the foundation for the SEC's upcoming climate-related disclosure requirements, which are expected to be extensive, industry-specific, and probably obligatory. To assure regulatory readiness and facilitate the transition to the forthcoming wave of regulation, asset managers should take proactive actions.

The new task for supply chain managers in the textile and footwear sectors is to ensure that their suppliers adhere to ESG criteria, particularly those that assess workers' rights and working conditions.

Concerns about exploitation and forced labor are rising, even though this problem is not new for the apparel/clothing and footwear industry—it has been over 25 years since campaigners successfully pressed Nike to address working conditions for women at its suppliers' factories.

Finer Details

Forcible labor and other aspects of ESG are becoming significant compliance concerns for many large firms due to increased pressure from NGOs, regulations in the UK, California, and planned legislation in New York, as well as these three states' laws.

Investors and activists are pressuring big firms to report and reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air, water, and other effects caused in their supply chains due to growing worries about climate change and other environmental consequences.

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