According to Redseer Consulting, the number of online shoppers in India will nearly double to around 50 million during the festive season this year.

This year’s bonanza sales will gain from the COVID-driven adoption among shoppers from Tier II and III cities, said a RedSeer report. The rise of new models like video- and WhatsApp-based shopping will become mainstream as companies try to serve their clients better

Given the expected festive sales performance, RedSeer estimates e-commerce in India to reach $38 billion (Rs2.8 lakh crore) in sales for all of 2020, up 40 per cent year-over-year.

During the first set of festive sales days, India’s e-commerce sector is expected to clock $4 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), the Bengaluru-based firm estimates.

Lower value, long-tail categories will do well. Fashion is expected to pick up as activities and social gatherings increase after a lull for almost six months due to the raging pandemic. Home and home furnishings will also do better than previous years due to the high demand for upgrading work-from-home and study-from-home equipment.

A survey by the Retailers Association of India (RAI) has revealed, in August Indian retailers witnessed a marginal recovery in business compared to July, even though localized lockdown in some states during Unlock 3.0 phase interrupted the growth of retail in the country.

The Survey say, retail sales shrank 52 per cent from a year earlier in August. The only category that showed a significant improvement in August was consumer durables, though their sales were still 23 per cent less than a year earlier. Sales in the food and grocery category declined by 46 per cent, footwear by 47 per cent, apparel and clothing by 54 per cent, sports goods by 58 per cent and beauty and wellness by 56 per cent all recorded sales around half of August last year.

The southern region fared slightly better with a 46 per cent sales decline, followed by East with a 52 per cent decline and West & North 54 per cent decline on a y-o-y basis. Across regions, large retailers performed marginally better than medium-sized ones.

Despite unlock 4.0 orders by the Central government, local authorities in some states continue to impose partial lockdowns, which is dampening consumer sentiment and hampering recovery, the association said. It appealed to the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade and the home ministry to instruct these states to adhere to the central government’s guidelines as any shutdowns should be very carefully calibrated to ensure a balance between lives and livelihoods.

German sportswear giant Puma India has witnessed strong sales from its online channels amid the COVID-19 disruptions and expects the demand for sports products to pick up in the coming months.

The company has witnessed a spike in new online shoppers on its website and other e-commerce platforms. It expects the demand to grow in the future as a result of increased interest by consumers in sports and fitness during the pandemic.

The company’s mono-brand site has emerged as one of the fastest-growing channels. Its focus on making Puma.com an important part of its e-commerce strategy in the country has helped it during the pandemic. The company has been witnessing new online users buying its products through its company-owned website, as well as other e-commerce digital platforms with an uptick in need-based purchases.

Puma has around 360 stores across 120 cities and is present across e-commerce platforms in India. It had reported a revenue total of Rs 1,413 crore ($212.4 million) in India in the financial year 2019.

COVID-19 is leading to a reevaluation of the luxury business model in India. With the luxury market expected to contract 39 per cent in 2020, businesses across the country are being forced to either to adapt or perish, says latest McKinsey report. While some of these are resorting to new distribution channels, others are opting for an extension of their product lines, services and product categories.

Diversification for apparel makers

Luxury apparel and accessory makers, Dior and Loreal are making disinfectant gels at their facilities. Luxury British heritage label, Burberry has launched reusable and sustainable masks with anti-microbial technology so have designers like Anita Dogre and Shivan and Narresh. Delhi-based affordable luxury leather goods brand Damilano, is focusing on its ecommerce platform as is Ensemble which is shifting most of its offline inventory to its webstore.

While some brands are launching classic collections that last long, others are introducing smart casual collections. Besides offering private client appointments for physical store shopping, these brands are also providing personal shopping and styling sessions on Zoom or video chat.

Similarly luxe automobile makers like Lamborghini, Mercedes Benz. BMW and Tesla are shifting production to hospital ventilators, protective plexiglass shields and other medical devices. Mercedes-Benz India has launched a new e-commerce platform ‘Merc From Home’, which enables customers to purchase their favorite Benz from the comfort and safety of their home’. Pre-owned car maker, Big Boy Toyz is seeing a 75 per cent surge in its online sales.

Spurt in demand for home fitness equipment

The restriction of most fitness freaks to their homes increased demand for home fitness equipment. To explore this demand, Louis Vuitton launched a stylish range of home fitness equipment including dumbbells and skipping rope. The brand has also introduced a set of opulent playing cards under its homeware line to engage its patrons. According to McKinsey, companies that prioritized customer service witnessed a stronger rebound from the 2008 crisis. In the current scenario too, customer focus will prove to be the gamechanger.

As stores reopen, fashion brands hope to apply their e-commerce learning -- to coax consumers back to stores. Besides updating their websites, these companies also plan to add features like artificial intelligence and virtual changing rooms for a seamless online and on-site customer experience. While Raw Mango has replaced pop-ups with an online store, designer Anita Dongre uses online operations to boost her robust overseas business. Companies that built strong relationships with their online audiences may continue to hold an advantage by investing in areas that would reward them quickly. For instance, Myntra recently launched customized web pages to connect with Middle Eastern audiences.

Similarly, Tarun Tahiliani started using payment links to send invoices directly to consumers’ inboxes instead of relying solely on cart payments. As he points out, since the products offered by the brand are of higher-value, they require more customer engagement. The brand’s customers need to connect with its team to satisfy their doubts.

New ways to connect with consumers

During the pandemic, many companies learnt new ways to connect with their consumers. To reach online shoppers, Myntra revisited the ‘Myntra Fashion Superstar’ competition, first launched in October 2019. Raw Mango replaced pop-ups to reach an international audience with an online store.

One of India’s oldest multi-designer stores, Ensemble teamed up with the Baradari project to explore the impact of social issues as part of an online campaign to raise funds for the handicrafts industry. Some of the other brands hired professionals to train their internal teams to use social media and other virtual tools. Designer Masaba Gupta learnt to create an educational fashion content, while designer Monica Shah, Co-owner of couture label Jade, employs videos to engage its online audiences. These videos include Q&A sessions that make the design process or selection of a lehenga online easier.

Many designers are also using discounts to woo their price-sensitive shoppers. Brand Bodice has been able to boost sales of pared back neutrals and flowing lounge pants by offering a 20 per cent discount. The popularity of these items helped the company sustain its business through difficult times.

Luxury resorts to markdowns

Luxury and couture companies have resorted to markdowns. As times have changed, people are now willing to shop for high-value products, says Tahiliani. There is growing demand for lehengas, saris, gowns and statement dresses, in India and abroad, says designer Rahul Mishra who launched his collection Butterfly People at Paris Digital Haute Couture Week A/W 2020/21. The collection includes intricate masks and craft-heavy dresses. It also includes classic and artisanal pieces along with avant-garde and experimental silhouettes. Some brands also plan to capitalize on the upcoming festive season in India. Ekaya for example aims to tap the gifting sentiments of customers during this period to launch a range of handwoven scarves and pocket squares.

With COVID-19 altering consumers’ shopping behavior, fashion labels like W for Woman, Benetton, Pepe, Jack & Jones and Inglot are upgrading their technologies to bring more of inventories on e-commerce platforms like Flipkart, Amazon, Myntra and Ajio.

For brands, e-commerce is a one-time investment and signifies the company’s desire to change the way they want to do business, says Manish Kapoor, CEO, Pepe Jeans which recently partnered Flipkart to deliver products from 15 outlets in the Delhi NCR and Mumbai.

Spike in enquiries for omni-channel enablement

Though Indian retailers had been planning to explore omni-channel retail for the last few years, they achieved little progress on this front. COVID-19 is pushing brands to upgrade technological investments and explore multiple retail channels as consumers are shying away from malls and high streets. Ace-Turtle, an omni- channel enabler company, witnessed a spike in inquiries from companies about offline-online synergies. The company has signed 19 brands for omni-channel roll outs since the outbreak of the pandemic, informs Nitin Chhabra, CEO.

However, growing emphasis on e-commerce is also creating tensions between fashion brands and malls as some malls are refusing to agree to new lease arrangement. Arjun Gehlot, Director, Ambience Group that operates malls in Delhi and Gurgaon has asked brands that use mall space to make online deliveries, to be prepared to pay appropriate charges for the services.

Malls recommend revenue-sharing for online deliveries

The group has advised malls to formulate a policy to factor this cost in. It recommends a model that classifies deliveries from shopping centers as sales from stores. Malls like Select Citywalk and Pacific Mall in Delhi have already incorporated a revenue-sharing model in new lease agreements for online orders fulfilled from stores in their malls. They have even agreed to charge brands less for fulfilling online orders compared to the amount mentioned in the revenue-sharing agreements

Kapoor believes, omni-channel would be the norm going forward for brands. Hence, malls and retailers need to agree on the amount for revenue-sharing from their online order fulfillments. According to him, the amount designated for retailers in the revenue sharing model should not be determined by their store sales as they have to bear all other costs.

Credited for launching the first edition of DFU Publications in 1989, Surendra Tulsidas Savai, President, Mumbai Textiles Merchants Mahajan, passed away on September 15, 2020. He was 81 years old. Savai was the Emirates Chairman of Mumbai Textiles Merchant & Federation of Association, Maharashtra (FAM). He remained the President of Mumbai Textile Mechants Mahajan for 30 years. He was also the Chairman, Joint Action Committee of Textile Traders Association, Director, New Piecegoods Bazar Co and Kalupur Commercial Cooperative Bank, and Trustee, Mumbai Port Trust.

Savai was also the trustee of Godiji Jain Temple Trust, Pydhonie- Mumbai as well as Motisha Jain Charitable Trust, Byculla-Mumbai. He was trustee of Mangrol & Chorwad Jain Temple Trust and Shrimad Buddhisagar Murtipujak Gurukul Jain Swetambar Sangh.

He is survived by his son Ajay, daughter-in-law Sonal, and daughters Smita and Jalpa. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, no prayer meeting has been organized but a Zoom meeting has been arranged.

The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted a loss of about US$253 bn (Rs 19 lakh crore) to India's retail industry in the past five-months, this is based on the estimates collected from figures received from 20 major cities in various states.

The entire retail trade, which is often called a growth engine of the economy, is pasing through its worst period in the current century and is in great dilemma never seen before. According to Praveen Khandelwal, Secretary General, CAIT, the pandemic has resulted in great turmoil for domestic trade to the extent that even after 'Unlock-4', traders across the country are "highly depressed". "The retail market is gripped with acute financial crisis as even the supplies made in November-December, the payment of which was to be released in February-March is still pending and there is no hope of its early realisation." he added.

CAIT appealed to Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman to advise banks not to charge any interest or penalty from traders for the time being. "If immediate steps are not taken about 20 per cent of the shops in India will have to close down their shutters and it will give rise to unemployment in the country," as per the association.

Brands and retailers like Benetton, Spencer’s Retail, Puma etc have adopted a just-in-time strategy for the upcoming festive season. The strategy includes inventory planning, finance options and discounts, as the pandemic has put everything in a state of flux. Fashion retailers also do not aim to stockpile as more online shoppers have been on-boarded in the last few months, says Abhishek Ganguly, General Manager, India and Southeast Asia, Puma. On the other hand, consumer durable companies have been witnessing an uptick in demand month over month. For instance, August sales at Panasonic increased by 18 per cent compared to the same period last year.

According to these companies, factors, such as, the onset of festive season, which began with Ganesh Chaturthi, favorable monsoons, WFH trends and rise in first-time buyers from rural markets are expected to salvage sales.

A report by KPMG and Retailers Association of India indicates, there will be increased adoption of online shopping, contactless payments and consumers placing safety over price, range and convenience post COVID-19. Shoppers will return to physical stores over the next few months as India hits peak festive season. Hence, retailers should shift focus to in-store safety and convert existing businesses to delivery-oriented ones, apart from tying up with delivery and logistics service providers in order to provide direct-to-home services.

According to the report entertainment, physical shopping, dining out could see a surge with gradual opening up of physical marketplaces. Harsha Razdan, Partner and Head, Consumer Markets and Internet Business, KPMG, though there will be uptick in demand, it will restricted to categories such as durables and apparel. According to him, demand will taper off again in January till the vaccine comes, and the job situation improves.

Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO, RAI, says an assurance of no localized lockdowns will fast-track recovery of sales during the upcoming festive season to almost the same levels as last year or perhaps just 20 per cent short of last year’s figures. This will prompt offline retailers to expand their direct to consumer reach, by upping investments online and expanding omni-channel reach.

The readymade garments industry is staring at 30-35 per cent loss as sales declined to Rs 6.5 lakh crore in FY20. Also, with just two months to go for Diwali festival season, apparel manufacturers are yet to receive sufficient orders from retailers. The industry witnessed 80 per cent drop in sales during the April-June quarter and it expects to drop to further widen to 60 per cent during the second quarter, says Rahul Mehta, Director, Creative Group of Companies. He estimates loss of employment in the sector to be in the range of 25 per cent or 3 million jobs this year. The sales during Diwali festival are expected to be around 50 per cent of last year.

Sakti Arrumugham, Director-Sales, Sakthi Heinrich Apparels says, his company has been facing close to 50 per cent drop in sales since the lockdown started. The company also saw 50-60 per cent decline in export orders. It laid off around 30 per cent workers in one of its units in Tiruppur.

Harakchand Vora, Chairman, Vardhaman Fashions said, the biggest challenge faced by apparel retailers is shortage of liquidity and credit. The industry needs to survive till March 2021 or else it will be wiped out. Currently, the major hurdles before the readymade garments manufacturing industry are shortage of labor and delay in payments from the retailers. Workers from Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal are yet to return completely and only 60 per cent of the pre-COVID levels are achieved, he said.

A Bengaluru-based clothing company has seen per cent jobs loses in the city. There are over 3,000 garment factories in Bengaluru. Among the small-scale units, 25-30 per cent have closed down due to lack of orders and non-payment of previous orders.

As India eases out of lockdown restrictions, with its festive season kicking off, luxury brands are ramping up efforts to entice shoppers.

The Indian government issued orders splitting goods and services into essential and non-essential categories, at the start of the countrywide lockdown in March. However, many consumers are still differing non-essential purchases and services – marking an uphill climb for brands that fall within these categories.

That’s mainly because most consumers were forced to skip large shopping occasions in the first half of 2020, said Kishankumar Shyamalan, Vice President, Wavemaker India.

Marketers operating in luxury categories are scaling up their experience offerings to bring in more customers in a bid to drive sales during the anticipated spike in spending for the festive season.

Fashion brands and retailers are accelerating their efforts to reach out to loyal customers with at-home video shopping experiences. Sheetal Seth, Head Marketing and Digital Media, Raymond Apparel, views these experiences as the new ways of ‘moment marketing’.

Jewellery brand Tanishq is asking customers to celebrate “golden moments” with families when at home, hosted live music shows, and released occasion-based campaigns across digital and print media.

Saahil Kumar, Head - Marketing, Sennheiser India has been investing in an omnichannel approach to provide customers with all available choices for shopping.

Kumar added that there have been some early signs that show quick recovery for premium and luxury brands, leading to optimism about recovery. The International Monetary Fund has predicted India would grow 1.9 per cent for the fiscal year that ends on March 31, 2021, making it one of the few major economies, alongside China, expected to register an expansion despite the pandemic.