World trade rebounds to record high in Q1 2021: Global Trade Update, UNCTAD

15 December 2021, Mumbai:

Global trade further rebounds in Q1 2021, increasing by about 10 per cent year-over-year and 4 per cent quarterover-quarter. Exports from East Asian economies drive the rebound. In other developing regions, trade recovers more slowly. Developed countries’ trade improves. Trade in goods surpasses prepandemic levels, with the trade in COVID-related sectors remaining strong. Trade in services continues to lag behind. Global trade is expected to further rebound in Q2. For 2021, global trade is projected to grow by 16 per cent, but the outlook remains uncertain.

Global trade trends and forecasts

Amid economic disruptions from COVID-19, on the whole global trade held up relatively well in 2020. Much of the trade resilience was due to East Asian economies, whose early success in pandemic mitigation allowed them to rebound faster and to capitalize on booming global demand for COVID-19 related products. The positive trends from the last few months of 2020 grew stronger in early 2021.

In Q1 2021, the value of global trade in goods and services grew by about 4 per cent quarter-over-quarter and by about 10 per cent year-over-year. Importantly, global trade in Q1 2021 was higher than pre-crisis levels, with an increase of about 3 per cent relative to Q1 2019. The trade rebound of Q1 2021 continues to be driven by the strong export performance of East Asian economies.

In Q1 2021, the value of trade in goods was higher than pre-pandemic level, but trade in services remains substantially below averages. During Q1 2021, global trade of COVID-19 related products remained strong.

Looking forward, trade is expected to continue growing into 2021. Trade growth is expected to remain stronger for East Asia and developed countries, while still lagging for many other countries. The value of global trade in goods and services is forecast to reach US$ 6.6 trillion in Q2 2021, equivalent to a year-over-year increase of about 31 per cent relative to the lowest point of 2020 and of about 3 per cent to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Trade growth is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2021, the overall forecast for 2021 indicates an increase of about 16 per cent from the lowest point of 2020 (19 per cent for goods and 8 per cent for services).

UNCTAD (The news article has not been edited by DFU Publications staff)

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